[Free Report] BizEasy's Analysis of the Islamabad MOU One Month Later: The Current State of the US-Iran Ceasefire Agreement

One month after the "ceasefire agreement," what has changed?

June 17, 2026 marked one month since the signing of the Islamabad MOU, which halted the US-Iran war. Initially reported as a "ceasefire agreement," what is the actual status of this agreement now? Based on official documents and daily primary sources, we have compiled a comprehensive report summarizing the first month since its signing. The report can be downloaded from the end of this document.

In short, while the agreement remains in writing, its implementation is in reverse. The five items that were supposed to be implemented immediately—ceasefire, lifting of the naval blockade, passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and resumption of oil trade—have all stalled or reversed as of mid-July. Particularly since July 7, the exchange between the US and Iran has reignited, starting with attacks on merchant ships, and the situation has shifted to an economic war. Iran has declared a de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and the US has resumed its blockade of Iranian-linked vessels. Crude oil prices, especially Brent, have surged by as much as 9.6% in a single day, the biggest jump in six years.

UAE remains on high alert

It is worth noting that on July 12th, the UAE also issued an alert for the first time in connection with this exchange. Although there were no hits and the incident ended outside the territory, resulting in no damage, the fact that the UAE, which has been subjected to the most attacks in the Gulf region, has once again become a party to the conflict cannot be overlooked.

This report is structured around three perspectives directly relevant to business decisions. First, it provides a chronological overview of the implementation status of key provisions from immediately after signing to the present. You can see at a glance what remains in effect and what has been rolled back. Second, it includes the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs' forecast for travel advisory levels and a practical checklist in case the level rises again to Level 3. Third, it covers logistics and procurement risks, including the situation on the Red Sea side in addition to the Sea of ​​Hormuz, and outlines initial response strategies by industry.

The situation is changing hour by hour, and this report is limited to a record of a specific point in time. However, we believe that understanding the structure of "how the agreement changed in one month" will be of considerable value as a foundation for future decisions.

【supplement】
The analysis date for this article is July 17, 2026. Since then, the threats and counterattacks from the US and Iran have continued, and ceasefire talks by mediating countries have also been reported. In addition to the Strait of Hormuz, a "dual strategic risk" including the Red Sea side (Bab el-Mandeb) in light of the situation in Yemen has become a new focus. The latest developments will be added to the full report, which you can download.

Profile

Kenichi Hokamura
Biz Easy FZCO / CEO

Biz Easy FZCO CEO Kenichi Hakamura
Representative of BIZ EASY, who has supported over 200 companies in Dubai. Areas of business include company establishment, visa support, opening corporate bank accounts, accounting and tax support, support for expanding into the Middle East, product registration and import/export, and HR.
https://www.bizeasy.co/jp/ info@bizeasy.co